NVDA

Stocktwits Summary

NVIDIA Q1 2025 Investment Report

$134.81 Market Cap: $3.29T Shares: 24.4B 52-Week: $86.63 - $153.13
$134.81
+5.0% (After Hours)

Valuation & Price Targets

Valuation Metrics

P/E (TTM) 42.3x
EV/Revenue 25.2x
Price/Sales 25.3x
FY2026 Forward P/E ~34x

12-Month Price Targets (Based on 2026 EPS: $4.37)

$100
Low (23x P/E)
$172
Average (39x P/E)
$220
High (50x P/E)

Post-Earnings Outlook

$100
Bear Case (23x 2026E P/E)
  • China restrictions expand further
  • AI demand plateau as efficiency improves
  • Increased competition from AMD/Intel
  • Custom silicon adoption by hyperscalers
  • Regulatory scrutiny increases
  • Margin compression from commoditization
$172
Base Case (39x 2026E P/E)
  • Blackwell ramp proceeds as planned
  • AI inference demand continues growing
  • Gaming and automotive segments stabilize
  • China restrictions remain at current levels
  • Margins recover to 70%+ range
  • Enterprise AI adoption accelerates
  • Revenue growth of 30-40% annually
$220
Bull Case (50x 2026E P/E)
  • AI agent revolution drives 10x demand
  • Stargate Project delivers massive orders
  • Sovereign AI buildout accelerates globally
  • New breakthrough in AI capabilities
  • Robotics and automotive segments boom
  • China restrictions lifted or new products approved
  • Platform ecosystem creates moat
  • Revenue growth exceeds 50% annually

Q1 FY2026 Earnings Recap

Revenue: $44.06B (+69% Y/Y) vs $43.31B est.
Adj EPS: $0.96 vs $0.93 est.
Data Center: $39.1B (+73% Y/Y)

Quarterly Performance

Quarter Revenue YoY Growth Data Center Gross Margin
Q1-F26 $44.1B +69% $39.1B (88%) 61.0% (ex-H20)
Q4-F25 $39.3B +78% $35.6B (91%) 73.5%
Q3-F25 $35.1B +94% $30.8B (88%) 75.0%
Q2-F25 $30.0B +122% $26.3B (88%) 75.1%

Long-Term Strategy

  • Blackwell architecture ramp-up with major cloud providers (AWS, Microsoft, Google)
  • AI inference demand surge (10x growth in token generation over past year)
  • Expanding into robotics, automotive AI, and enterprise AI infrastructure
  • Building sovereign AI infrastructure globally as countries invest in AI capabilities

Bull Case

  • Blackwell production ramping across major cloud providers
  • AI inference demand accelerating with agent adoption
  • Gaming revenue up 42% YoY showing strength beyond data center
  • $500B Stargate Project partnership potential
  • Microsoft deploying hundreds of thousands of Blackwell GPUs

Bear Case

  • $8B revenue hit from China H20 export restrictions in Q2
  • $4.5B H20 inventory charge impacting margins
  • Increasing competition from AMD, Intel, and custom silicon
  • Q2 guidance below some analyst expectations
  • AI efficiency improvements potentially reducing compute demand

Revenue Segments & Growth Focus

Data Center
$39.1B
(+73% YoY)
Gaming
$3.8B
(+42% YoY)
Automotive
$567M
(+72% YoY)
Professional Viz
$509M
(+19% YoY)

Key Growth Initiatives

Blackwell Architecture

  • • Full-scale production launched
  • • Major cloud providers adoption
  • • Higher performance per watt
  • • NVL72 AI supercomputer systems

AI Inference Growth

  • • 10x token generation growth YoY
  • • Agent AI driving new demand
  • • Enterprise workflow transformation
  • • Sovereign AI infrastructure build-out

Platform Expansion

  • • Networking products: $5B quarterly run rate
  • • NVIDIA AI Enterprise software growth
  • • Robotics and automotive AI platforms
  • • DGX Cloud and enterprise solutions

Financial Outlook

Metric Q2 FY2026 Guidance Impact Factors
Revenue $45.0B ± 2% $8B China restriction impact
Gross Margin (GAAP) To be provided H20 inventory charges resolved
Operating Expenses ~$5.5B estimated Continued R&D investment
Tax Rate ~17% ± 1% Standard rate maintained

NVIDIA's Q2 guidance of $45B would have been ~$53B without China export restrictions. The company is exploring new chip designs for China market compliance.